France and Spain presented a brand new Peace plan. The new initiative aims to replace a long list of failed agreements between Israel and the Palestinians that include: Madrid Peace conference, Oslo agreement, the road-map, the Arab league peace initiative and others which I can not remember now. The new initiative has five parts: an immediate cease-fire, a Palestinian unity government that can gain international recognition, an exchange of prisoners — including the Israeli soldiers whose capture sparked the war in Lebanon and fighting in Gaza this summer — and an international mission in Gaza to monitor the truce.
Unfortunately, the new ambitious plan did not mention the "S" word. Now do not go for away with your sick mind, I am talking about the word "security". Obviously without security you can not achieve any of the above mentioned goals. Take the situation in Iraq for example. Currently the Americans spend 1 million dollars/hour on rebuilding Iraq however Baghdad residents still suffer from electricity and water shortage for the fourth year in-a-row.
Particularly, the security situation in Palestine is heading from bad to worse, since Hamas ascended to power. October has seen a sharp rise in clashes between Hamas and Fatah-aligned fighters in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Things are not getting better any time soon as Hamas announced this week its plan to establish a new executive force in the West Bank.
Abbas, Israel and the US can do more to help the Palestinians. Abbas needs to stop being a lame-duck president. There has been a good indications that things might change and Abbas might step up to his responsibilities. He said recently that "Bread is more important than democracy" and that a decision needs to be made to establish "a loyal Palestinian government that will enjoy international recognition, will enable the embargo against our people to be lifted" and allow the creation of a Palestinian state.
Israel has a stake in Abbas' success. For the last two years, the Israeli government refused to listen to Jordan to allow Bader Forces; a professionally trained Palestinian forces that is based in Jordan to get into the occupied territories. Fortunately, the Israeli government is getting it finally. The Israeli government spokeswoman hinted last week the odds of allowing these forces to get into the territories to embolden Abbas' authority is high.
Back to Abbas. He has repeatedly displayed caution in confronting Hamas trying to avoid direct conflict. Apparently he believes in the saying, "If you ain't never pick up the sword, you ain't never have to worry about fallin' on it." How long can the Palestinians afford practising "avoidance" as a strategy, only time can tell.
23 comments:
I don’t know how effective Abbas is capable of being, does he even have much support among the Palestinian population? If things quiet down, will people follow him? Can he inspire them?
I will agree with you on your main point - without security, starting with internal security for Palestinians on the street, negotiations and plans will go nowhere. Iraq is a great example of what can go wrong, and how not to do things. Can you give more details of these “Bader Forces”? There is no question that Gazans especially seem to be incapable of policing themselves at the moment and an outside force seems necessary, a force supplied by Jordan would be preferrable to complete outsiders who don’t know the culture well.
Nov 17th, 2006 at 4:48 pm
Very nice summary of the recent initiative.
Alas, all past peace initiatives have failed partly because security was not spelled out in the document. But I would argue what kind of security are you talking about? Is it the internal security, as in law and order? Or the security between the two peoples? There lies a vital distinction, and I would say that in the former, the Palestinians have a serious problem, which has only been made worse since Hamas gained power. The absence of any law and order among the Palestinians (especially in the Gaza Strip) amounts to armed gangs being able to do what they want, when they want. In other words, there is no monopoly on the use of force in Gaza, and if anyone has taken a political science course, they would know one of the preconditions of a functioning, stable state is that there is a monopoly on the use of force by the government.
What this comes down to is the ability for any one person or group of persons to take over the agenda of the people. That is, extremists can easily derail anything because their ability to do so is so easy.
Please check out my blog, by the way… http://tospurdebate.wordpress.com
Nov 17th, 2006 at 6:16 pm
Lisoosh,
I do not think that Abbas has enough support among the Palestinian population. He definitely does not have the same charisma that Arafat had before. However Israel is not helping at all. A nice gesture will be for example to release some prisoners to him instead of onducting a deal with Hamas by swaping prisoners with the kidnapped soliders. Additionally , Israel can help him by leting Bader forces get to the terrorities.The Bader Brigade has been stationed in Jordan for the last two decades. It was established by the Arab League many decades ago. It belongs to the PLO but got its training through the Jordanian Army. The Brigades
is highly trained and very discpliend and defintely will change the security situation on the streets
Nov 17th, 2006 at 6:42 pm
I just wanted to say I just discovered this blog (thanks to the plug on MJT’s page)…Howcome no one told me about this????
Nov 17th, 2006 at 6:52 pm
Shifaa - thanks for your answer. I’m honestly not sure how much Israel can really help him. I would agree that marginalizing him isn’t helpful, but overtly dealing with him will just earn him the name of being Israel’s patsy which can backfire in the long run. When it comes to internal Palestinian politics I think that Israel is credited with far more influence than it actually has and is used to distract from the lack of unity that exists among the Palestinians themselves.
The Bader Brigade sounds interesting but I hadn’t realized that they are actually partisan in nature. Additional security would be good, but who would they answer to? One of the big problems in Gaza especially is split loyalties - I would agree with the comment by Jonny above that stablility requires a monopoly on force. I would think that interim security forces which are neutral may be more useful, at least until the issue of a main Palestinian police is sorted out.
Nov 17th, 2006 at 9:54 pm
This is so complicated that it makes me despair.
Shifaa, Israel has to be careful not to seem to support Abbas too much because this may backfire for Abbas. I think (perhaps I am mistaken?) that Israel allowed some weapons to get to Abbas and Fatah about a month or two ago? Many people, like myself, like Abbas and feel that he is an honorable man. Arafat had charisma—but one of the first things I learned when working as a social worker was the definition of a sociopath, and sadly, most of the world’s career politicians fit that definition. The corruption and theft of money meant to support the Palesinian people never reached them, but found its way into Arafat’s bank accounts. Correct me if I am wrong on this. So Abbas has little charisma, but it seems to me that he does have a good heart. This in itself certainly may not be enough.
I do certainly agree that it would be good if Israel could make some kind of goodwill gesture just spontaneously. Surely good will would not hurt, or would it be perceived as weakness?
There are plenty of people who are selling arms to both sides and making money.
It is frustrating because many people are being hurt and killed—and it seems irrational to me. Perhaps the Bader Forces could restore order?
I read Stratfor, a geopolitical analytical firm that analyzes conflicts and political situations, makes predictions, gives business advice to investor,etc., and I wonder whether politicans ever seek expert advice on how to solve problems? It looks to me like they all need some expert advice!
Nov 18th, 2006 at 2:12 am
Jonny,
First, thanks for your comment. I checked your blog and it looks very interesting.
Second, I believe that there is a strong correlation between internal
security within the state borders and the external security. Countries
that are able to provide peace to its citizens ultimatley can provide it to
its neighbours if it decides to. I think that one leads to
the others.
Even thought that i agree with your point that the monopoly of power should be
only in the hands of the government, the situation here is a littlebit grey to say the least. At this point, the PA power is divided in half.
Of course that is the main problem here. That is why Abbas who supposes to act like a chief of staff needs to crack down on Hamas. Period.
Nov 18th, 2006 at 2:27 am
Lynne and lisoosh,
Unlike the “president” post in the Israeli political system, the Palestinian President has a constitutional power as the Chief of staff to defend the state. So Bader forces or any other Palestinian forces should be loyal to the President and not to the Prime Minister whose main job is to run
the daily business of the government. Ironically, the Prime Minister post
was elevated two years ago by the international community as the West
was trying to avoid dealing with Arafat and to embolden Abbas who used to have that post in the past. Now the whole thing came back to hunt Abbas himself who became later the President of Palestine.
I agree with both of you that Israel should be very subtle in its support to Abbas, nevertheless I still believe that they can do much more than just blaming him for any security problems as if he has the power to fix it.
And I do not believe in the notion that any kind gesture will be perceived asweakness. I think most ordinary people are sick of the whole situationthat they just want to have a normal life.
Nov 18th, 2006 at 4:15 am
Shifaa you definitely got that right, ordinary people are indeed beyond sick of the whole situation!
Israel has a huge stake in Abbas succeeding. Abbas is the best chance we’ve all got for working things out, at least as things stand now.
But, as you point out, Abbas is also very problematic in so many ways because he not only doesn’t have control, or the ability to control, Hamas nor does he have real control over his own party, Fatah. He doesn’t even have control over the Presidential guard. Israel does need to be doing, subtly, more to support and bolster Abbas. But again, because Abbas doesn’t have control over his own group it becomes a very difficult sell here. For instance, there was strong support and agreement when the Israeli govt sent a lot of weapons to Abbas to arm the presidential guards (the threat of his being assassinated was and is high) and presidential force. There was at the time support for doing more. That support pretty much evaporated when less than a month later a couple of high-ranking members of Abbas’s own force came out in the media and announced that the weapons Israel had sent had been used to carry out attacks (and to kill one) Israelis in the West Bank and would be used only against Israelis and not for….While such claims and proclamations may have been made to bolster support for Abbas within Palestine and to show that his group too is “strong against Israel” it certainly doesn’t do a whole lot for getting Israelis behind giving additional support for Abbas. (And I think, personally, that these guys made such a big deal out of this particular issue in order to hurt Abbas because there was conflict within his own group). But you see the problem.
I think bringing in the Bader Forces might just be a very spiffy idea. I would not be wild about bringing in UN forces because they tend to be extremely ineffective (yo, Rwanda anyone? Lebanon for the past nearly 30 years?) but also to behave in a very non-neutral manner as far as the things they do enforce or don’t enforce.
Yael,
The Palestinian military forces was weaken significantly and probably beyond
the point of fixing in the few months after the start of the second intifada.
Israel chose to bombarded them in responding to the wave of suicidal missions that were hitting many Israeli cities. Now, I do not know if that was smart idea
or not but at this point I think that Israel and as you said has a stake in having
a strong moderate Palestinian partner to make business with. And I do think that they should publicly announce their alliance with Abbas, this is not a
topic that they should discuss it with the media. Again, I do not see any other option but to allow Bader forces to get in the territories and take control of it.
The security risk of letting them get in is much lower than a potential
civil war that will end any potential prospect for peace in the region.
Nov 18th, 2006 at 10:36 am
Yael - after sleeping on it I came to a very different conclusion. The trouble with the Bader forces is that they are PLO - they would answer to the PLO leader, not to the law. It sounds like they would clamp down initially, but what is to stop Hamas, angry at being beaten, from getting more money and arms and coming back bigger and stronger and ready for another fight? What is to stop it from becoming another repressive “regime’ such as exists in Egypt with Abbas as the new Mubarak? It might be a short term solution, but very very short term as it ultimately gives Abbas uncontrolled power. Any police need, at the end of the day, to be beholden to the law, not to an individual or organization. That is one of the problems in the US at the moment, where the administration has been attempting to bend the law to suit its purpose rather that bending to meet the law, and it is causing a great deal of strain.
What is the state of the legal system in Gaza and the West Bank? What will it take to separate the powers?
I’ve lived in a few different countries and have come to realize that the most powerful aspect of the system in the US isn’t that it is a democracy, it is the separation of powers, designed to stop any one group or person from becoming all powerful, and the independant judiciary. It is quite amazing to think that in the US, any one person can go to court and challange the government, and it is a good thing.
I realize that in the Middle East, there is a tendancy to look for saviours and the attitude to rulers is different than that in the West, but it has its own set of problems - such as when the ruler is not a good person.
Nov 18th, 2006 at 10:56 am
One of the main reasons that there is not political upheaval in the US is the economic situation that strengthens conformity and reduces any tendencies toward radicalism. People feel that they have a stake in the US system and are free to just live their lives. Most don’t even bother to vote! (Not a good thing) Ramzi, in another post you addressed the need to find a way to start the economic situation in a upward swing—which will be hard to accomplish even the situation—but so productive if it could be managed at all
Lisoosh,
I agree with you that the separation of power in the US is the base of the
existence of the civil society. Ironically it has a counterproductive
effect on the Palestinian situation. The main problem in the Palestinian
political system at this point is that the executive branch has two heads. It works well in France but not in Palestine and I do not think that this is a good idea in general. I think that the Palestinians should have adopted the American political system where the President is the only head of the executive branch period. Of course that head much be
accountable to the judiciary and legislature branches. So this the first thing
that must be resolved. Who is running the excutive branch in Palestine?
In order for the legal system to be powerful, judges should feel safe
Parlimant members should be able to go the Parlimant without being interrupted by gangg members demanding politcial or business favors. Again, that is why security shoud be establish first. Jordan had a similar experince in the 70s where the PLO and the Jordanina government ruled different parts of the country and that did not work. Now as the country is secure, democracy can thrive. I like to see more of that of course.
I really believe that accountable Autocracy might be an essential stage that
should exist before Democracy as a political system can be established.
Once security is established, and people have bread on the table then they can come back and
discuss other important issues such as the necessity to separate the
power among the governmental branches.
Nov 18th, 2006 at 11:42 am
Shifaa, Your last paragraph of the previous post sums the situation and solution well, and I agree. Democracy cannot just be plugged into the middle of chaos and disorder. An “accountable Autocracy” seems like a logical and realistic first step. The rest can be worked out later. Your solution idea follows exactly the thinking of the social psychologist Abraham Maslow, who ranks people’s needs on a pyramid in order of importance before the next need can be met. It’s difficult to think of “self-actualization” when you are in danger or starving. The need for security is critical and basic and at the very foundation of our existence.
I can relate to Abraham Maslow’s “pyramid” concept.I am a shrink myself though I am so far behind the self-acutalization stage
Nov 18th, 2006 at 12:23 pm
“I really believe that accountable Autocracy might be an essential stage that
should exist before Democracy as a political system can be established.
Once security is established, and people have bread on the table then they can come back and
discuss other important issues such as the necessity to separate the
power among the governmental branches.”
I get where you are coming from. My only questions would be- How would you make that Autocracy accountable and to whom, and how would you ensure that it would come to an end?
That is why I would prefer some form of neutral security force, although finding one would be difficult, someone whose goal is to get out and who doesn’t have a real long term interest in the area.
Nov 18th, 2006 at 12:56 pm
Can I ask a good question, something I have been wondering for a while now. Why is their near total anarchy in the Gaza Strip and nothing comparable is heard of in the West Bank?
I know the usual answer is that the Gaza strip is a huge urban area that is over-populated and economically destitute, so lets assume those for now and hold them aside. What else is so different of Gaza from the West Bank to make is such a difficult place to live?
I ask because it is this anarchy which erodes security to begin with. No one is in charge, there is no (effective) hierarchy, and so security is the first victim.
http://tospurdebate.wordpress.com
Nov 18th, 2006 at 1:00 pm
Shifaa I’m definitely with you on this one. In fact, I think if a similar path were followed in Palestine as was followed in Jordan it would have the best chance of working successfully. I don’t think the American model can be successfully applied in the M.E. –while we have a democracy here in Israel it is not on the same template as in the U.S. and I don’t think the U.S. model would work here. BTW, thud you are a shrink (as you put it)? I’m not a shrink but I am a social psych professor .
Lisoosh the points you raise are valid concerns but right now, the way I see it, the other very real dangers in the current situation –and g-d forbid a civil war breaking out –are much more of a risk. I could very well be wrong. From my experience you seem to be almost preternaturally adept at pegging things.
Nov 18th, 2006 at 1:15 pm
Autocratic government can be accountable to the International community I think.
Since there is no viable strong Palestinian econmony and since the Palestinians reiceve almost a one billion dollars yearly in international aid then it is not difficult to connect their acceptance of this aid with certain preconditions for political reform. Thomas Friedman talked about the correlation between democratic reforms and the strength of economy. He called it the first law of petropolitics. In brief countries in the third world who have strong economy tend to adopt a dictatorship kind of government. The recipient of money and forign aid might provide the needed accountability.
Nov 18th, 2006 at 1:16 pm
Shifaa, I am not even close to the self-actualizing stage
Nov 18th, 2006 at 1:19 pm
Johny, I think that you have an interesting question. I am not sure why the current situation in Gaza is worse than the WB. I think this has been the case as long as I remember. May it has to do with the fact that Gaza is isolated geographically, more populated and more conservative religiously but I might be wrong.
Nov 18th, 2006 at 1:21 pm
Yael, I do not know that you are social psyh prof. My doctorate is in the clinical psych ( community counseling). May be we should do a project or a joined study together in the future. I was so excited to hear that.
Nov 18th, 2006 at 2:23 pm
Shifaa - I’ve heard other Jordanians hold the same position as you. I would guess it would come from your experiences with the Hashemite Monarchy.
Yael - Thanks for the compliment in there.
Jonny - Ramzi would probably be able to answer the best. My personal guess would be a different (higher) ratio of refugees to original inhabitants in the Strip. The West Bank has a lot of long established towns and cities with old families and a set hierarchy which provide structure.
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