The last 48 hours "of Gaza" leading to the civil war

"What events happened in the last 48 hours in Gaza that led to the Palestinian civil war and who to be blamed for it?" will remain a task for historians to be determined. Now, "History" is typically written by winners but this might not be the case this time. An independent reporter Charles Levinson has an interesting blog called "Conflict Blatter" and he reported the events in Gaza that led to the civil war step by step:

Here is a timeline of events in the 48 hours leading up to civil war as relayed to me by a close adviser to the Commander of the now dissolved Presidential Guards:

SATURDAY 10:30 a.m. - A family closely tied to Hamas’ armed wing the Ezzedine al Qassam Brigades sets up a checkpoint outside the Abu Jihad Al Wazir mosque on the beach road about two km south of Abbas’ compound in Gaza City. Within minutes they kidnap a Presidential Guard soldier whose brother is the bodyguard for senior Fatah official Abdel Hakim Awad.

11 a.m. - The joint faction committee is alerted regarding the crisis. The committee has representatives of all the Palestinian factions, all the security forces, and the Qassam Brigades, and was established for the very purpose of resolving disputes peacefully. Hamas assures the committee that they aren’t holding the kidnapped guardsman. It’s just a family dispute they say.
Shortly after 11 a.m. - Another presidential guardsman is kidnapped. This time the kidnapped soldier is a nephew of the General in charge of the Presidential Guards.
The family of the second kidnapped soldier, the Al Buhaysi family, immediately kidnaps a member of the Qassam brigades before any attempts at negotiation have begun.

Checkpoints spring up all over the central and northern Gaza Strip.
A series of tit-for-tat kidnappings continue as Fatah and Hamas members are picked off at enemy checkpoints.
Samih al Madhoun kidnaps a doctor and Hamas member who is attending his brother’s graduation from the Presidential Guards training academy. He kneecaps him and dumps him in street.

SATURDAY evening - Fatah grabs a high value Qassam member who confesses information regarding a past assassination in the Gaza Strip. (no more details on either the kidnapped Hamas member or the nature of his confession are provided).
Hamas is suddenly willing to negotiate and agrees to a prisoner exchange.
Prisoner exchange takes time as Fatah leadership tries to reach all the disparate Fatah factions that are holding prisoners. Hamas is unhappy.

SUNDAY 2 a.m. - Presidential Guard officer Moataz Abu Shanab is found in the streets having been kidnapped by Hamas and kneecapped.
Around noonish - Force 17 soldier Mohammad al Suwerky is kidnapped and thrown bound and blindfolded from the roof of the 18 story Al Ghifary tower.
Samih Al Madhoun and Force 17 each go on kidnapping spree.

By 9 p.m. on SUNDAY every security force soldier is armed, carrying no less than six extra ammo clips on his body and on high alert.

MONDAY morning reports start pouring in that Hamas is beginning to surround security bases in the Gaza Strip and civil war erupts Monday

A new aggressive strategy by Islamists in the Middle East

Embolden by Hamas'victory, Hezbollahi fighters detained a Lebanese police patrol yesterday in Southern Beirut and held them for "entering a Hezbollah security zone." The timing of the incident which was described as the first of its kind clearly was chosen to send a direct warning to the Lebanese Army to watch out and learn lessons from the fate of their colleagues in Gaza. Other analyst read that as a manifestation of an preemptive strike to warn the Lebanese Army from any future attempt to disarm Hezbollah militia.

Surely we are living in interesting times these days. These latest developments in the region represent the rising of a new phenomenon in the region. In the past, and apart from Algeria, where the Islamic (Jabat Al-Inkath) chose a bloody route to establish a radical Islamic rule, most Islamic parties in the region declared a peaceful commitment to transform societies gradually to adopt Islamic Sharia through dialogue and education. The recent shift to establish a "state within state" entities indicate that supporters of the peaceful approach within those parties are loosing ground to a radical element within those groups pushing more for aggressive approach. It also might indicate that the peaceful approach is more lengthy and inefficient.

Regardless of the various theories out there, the new approach which has been adopted so far by Islamists in Palestine, Lebanon and Iraq (Mahdi Army) seem to be working faster in terms of spreading ideology and propaganda; this time by force. As Hamas spokesman Islam Shahwan triumphantly told Hamas Radio,``The era of justice and Islamic rule has arrived." For most moderates in the region like "me" who love to see the region one day endorsing "democracy" as a political system; my deepest fear is that Hamas, Hezbollah and Mahdi Army presented the essential vision of Islamists shorn of all caveat, compromise or apology. Let us all hope that I am wrong.

A two-state solution: Gaza and Palestine

The coming news from Gaza is disturbing to say the least. Gaza is almost and for the first time under complete control of Hamas forces. As a senior Hamas leader stated: "Gaza has been re-liberated;" apparently this time from Fatah control. So what is the implication of Hamas' control of Gaza? Many.

Now the Palestinian unity government may be dissolved under a proposal being considered by Fatah leader and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. A decree from Abbas will appoint an emergency Fatah-led government that will run the territories till a new election will be arranged in the future. This of course will affect Hamas leadership who has been enjoying unprecedented protection from Israel retaliation because of their diplomatic status. Additionally, this will prevent the money that Hamas led-government receives from some Arab nations such as Qatar and others to reach to the hand of Hamas which has been obviously used to boost its military and power and presence.

On the other hand, Israel has expressed concern about the possibility that Gaza could be solely controlled by Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Tuesday if Hamas gains control of Gaza it would have "regional implications" and he called for an international force to patrol the Gaza-Egypt border to prevent Hamas radicals from importing new and more powerful weapons into Gaza. Hamas spokesman in Beirut immediately rejected such an idea and declared that any international force will be considered as a new occupation for the liberated Islamic "Gaza"

The military rise of Hamas is also bad news for moderate Arab states such as Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia and another indication of the rise in the influence of Iran in the region. All of these countries have an Islamic radical element within their borders that might be inspired by the victory of Hamas. For Jordan, the last development indefinitely delays any kind of conversation about a potential confederation between Jordan and Palestine; since as of today there are two states in Palestine(one in Gaza that has a green flag and another in the West Bank that raises the previous one (black-green and red) flag).

The expected scenario in the next hours will probably include the dissolution of the government, a revenge course that already started in the West Bank against Hamas' military and political presence and more cooperation between Fatah and Israel to finish Hamas politically and military. Saying that, previous attempts to eradicate Hamas in the past ended in failure and was counterproductive. The question is that whether this chapter of Hamas' reign will be the first or the last of their destiny?!The answer of this question is unknown at least for now, but surely we are living in interesting times.

The "Confederation for Peace" formula

70 prominent Palestinian professors, business leaders, and members of the legislative councils were invited last month to attend a meeting at the port of Aqaba, Jordan. The meeting was initiated by Ex-prime minister Dr. Majali; the main man behind the Israeli-Jordanian peace treaty, to discuss the dead peace process in the region and the future political relationship between the upcoming Palestinian state and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. The timing of this invitation was very interesting since it was almost 40 years ago that the West Bank and East Jerusalem, fell out of Jordanian hands into Israeli control in the course of the Six-Day War. Surprisingly the idea of a potential confederation between the West Bank and Jordan surfaced again when many members of the Palestinian delegation raised it with the King.

Call it “Karma” or whatever but the idea of the West Bank rejoining the Hashemite Kingdom to form some kind of confederation will reshape the geopolitics of the region to look almost exactly like the pre 1967 era:the West Bank under Jordanian control and the Gaza Strip under Egyptian stewardship. Moreover, it makes the words of the song “War what is it good for?” to be true and prophetic.

Interestingly, the idea of forming some kind of federation or confederation is gaining traction on both sides of the Jordan River. Even hotheaded Netanyahu who stalled the peace process for over three years when his Likud party gained power in the Mid nineties and who is currently the most popular politician in Israel is excited about it. “Some kind of federation or confederation between Jordan and the Palestinians would enhance peace prospects in the region,” Netanyahu said in an interview with the Financial Times last month.

So is the so called “federation/confederation” a viable and doable option? May be is the answer. Some Jordanians are concerned about the kingdom’s stability, which after generations of being flooded with Palestinian refugees is now hosting up to a million Iraqi refugees. Khalaf, a Jordanian blogger warned against any attempt to replace the Israeli tanks by Jordanian ones to enforce order in the Palestinian cities and suggested that this confederation to happen between the concerned parties:Israelis and Palestinians since they share the same land. Khalaf was referring to a one-state solution to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Moreover, many Jordanians point out that while Jordan has ancestral ties to the West Bank, a more distant and violent Gaza looks ungovernable. On the Palestinian side, and to add logistical skepticism to the idea, ones might wonder if Hamas who has a troublesome relationship with the Kingdom might be interested in such kind of an arrangement.

Till now the official Jordanian position is that no Jordanian-Palestinian confederation will be established before there is an independent Palestinian state. However and as everybody knows in the Middle East: nobody says what he means and nobody means what he says. When the king himself was asked about this old new/old idea, he clearly indicated that it is premature to talk about confederation at this point of time, however some people think that things might change if the US and EU gave up on the direct negotiation between the Israelis and the Palestinians and endorse this option.

Apart from the practicality of this idea, the main question remains for most Jordanians to be simple and made of two words: why now? The previous marriage between the two people ended up in a divorce when the latest King Hussein of Jordan decided to disengage from the unity with the West Bank in 1988 even though the Palestinians along with all Arab nations under PLO pressure wanted to break up with the Kingdom since 1974. So it is very interesting that the remarriage proposal to come from the Palestinian side this time.

For me, it seems that Palestinians’ sudden interest in the confederation option is related to the economic and political benefits that they may gain by joining the Kingdom. The question is: what happens if those benefits do not last. What happens if the international community fails as usual to deliver the expected aid to help this new confederation? Are the newly remarried parties willing to stand by each other in sickness or health, for better or worse till God sets them apart. What do I know, I am neither a minister nor a marriage counselor but an old couple once told me that “getting married is not about choosing the right person, it is about being the right one.”